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Iraqis and their worsening situation
General Petraeus finally read his report to Congress. All in all it was pretty predictable.
The Bush administration has been using this report as an "wait-for-it"-excuse for so long now that it's importance has made it unlikely and indeed neigh impossible that is is a) complete, b) objective and c) truthful. The second paragraph ("This really ís my report! I wrote it myself!") does little to alleviate those concerns.
And lo and behold: Not a single inconvenient conclusion for the current administration. Not a single one! The earliest opportunity to lower troop levels to pre"Surge" levels will be, according to Petraeus, summer 2008. That's all there is about troop withdrawals.
Granted, both Petraeus and Crocker seem to have at least the beginnings of a concept for a plan of improvement, based on the minor successes there undoubtebly are.
Still, a number of things give rise to major concerns in my head.
Security
Firstly the positive view on security. In the Excel graphs from the sheets on page 3 one can clearly see the drop in the levels of violence. Regardless of the reliability and possibility of manipulation of these figures it's also quite evident that these levels are the same as the ones somewhat more than a year ago. This would make progress in about five months about the same as the rise of violence in about the same time. It's also strangely peculiar that if security really is thát much better (Nuri al-Maliki speaks of an improvement of 75%, a direct contradiction to what the Americans are saying), then why is threequarters of all Iraqis still convinced that violence has only risen?Population and support
Petraeus states over and over again his successes in defeating al-Qa'ida; he mentions them no less than 22 times in his report, although it has been abundantly clear for quite some time that the organisation is far from a major factor in the violence. For the most part the general has the Al Anbar region to thank for the increased security figures. This region, already being used as propaganda, suddenly are a Deus ex Machina, rallying behind the Americans as a direct result from "The Surge". 60% of all interviewed Iraqis still believe it's more than justified to attack any coalition troops. Anbar is swarming with Sunni muslims, which without a doubt make up the lion's share of this 60%. Many of them fought the American occupation with heart and soul, or out of defence against the Shi'a. This raises questions about their loyalties. At this point, they're alliances out of convenience at best, born out of certain necessities. As one Lt. Mackesy says: "One day they're laying IEDs, the next they're police collecting a paycheck"Humanitarian crisis and corruption
But the two biggest problems in Iraq aren't even touched upon by neither Petraeus or Crocker. The Global Policy Watch report of June 2007 does address these issues, and it paints a grim and dark picture about the humanitarian situation in Iraq. I'll let the chapter 8 conclusions speak for themselves:Iraq faces a growing humanitarian emergency, with unprecedented death and displacement. [...] up to 8 million people were vulnerable and in need of immediate assistance. [...] Education has broken down. Unemployment [is] about 60% [...]. An estimated 54% of the Iraqi population lives on less than a dollar a day, among which 15% live in extreme poverty. The public health system is weak and losing capacity. Electricity is in short supply. Only 32% of Iraqis have access to clean drinking water. [...] 4 million Iraqis [are] acutely vulnerable due to food insecurity. Severe malnutrition doubled between 2003 and 2005. Iraq 's humanitarian emergency has reached a crisis level that compares with some of the world's most urgent calamities.
Of course this is partly because of the dire lack of security, but fact is that these problems are the breeding grounds of the neverending cycle of violence and misery. Besides that there's the issue of the huge corruption which is now embedded into every level of the government and the reconstruction effort, crippling both these projects. Again the Global Policy Watch report, chapter 9 this time:
From the first days, the US and its occupation partners built a wasteful, unaccountable and corrupt system in Iraq. Massive theft, fraud, bribery, and malfeasance of every kind have infected the reconstruction, procurement and governance process. There are hundreds of fraudulent, incomplete, failed or useless projects that have drained Iraq 's revenues of tens of billions of dollars. Judging from end-results, the projects have produced astoundingly little of lasting benefit to Iraqis. [...]
Nowhere is an effective solution touched upon. The only remark closely to it that's made is that Iraq is now one of the United States' best military equipment customers.
And finally there's the inclination both Petraeus and Crocker have to blame the current Iraqi government. To me, this the most worrying development. The reports, clearly aimed at home consumption, both partly blame for and put responsibility with the Iraqi government. Bush did this at his visit to Anbar, which indicates a new spin in communications. The big danger in this is, and it's already clearly reeking of this foul stench, is that this is the potential exit-strategie they are looking for in American politics. "See, we are trying, but the Iraqi government is refusing to cooperate (anymore)", combined with some souped up numbers and hidden problems at the Iraqi military and policy are thé single most viable excuse to start withdrawing with heads held up high.
And between all the misery I do have to agree with these incompetent ball scratchers on one thing: Withdrawing the American forces, despite their shortcomings and negative side-effects, would have disastrous consequences.
